网路的政治

(刊登于联合早报2008年11月23日)


许多评论者认为奥巴马之所以在美国总统大选获胜，其中一个原因是他比其他对手更懂得利用网路做为传达政治讯息和收集政治捐款的平台。例如，奥巴马的官方竞选网站在他两年前宣布将竞选总统时就第一时间启动了，而他的竞选团队也透过电邮、YouTube和如同MySpace或Facebook的社交网络服务在民间召集和组织起草根性的自愿兵团，以及透过其管道筹得有史以来破记录的竞选金额。尤其是透过网路所筹得的资金，让奥巴马可以在竞选的最后两周展开大规模的宣传活动。

然而，与其说这是奥巴马团队的精明战略，不如说这是大势所趋。在2004年的大选中，布什的竞选团队也大量利用电邮做为传播媒介，而当时Howard Dean也在民主党的初选中利用网路进行筹款。在此届大选中，其他候选人也不是没官方竞选网站，只不过对于其工具的投资和运用没有奥巴马团队来得细心和广泛。

网路竞选成为此届美国大选中左右胜利的因素，其实也点出了近几年来越来越多人从网路摄取新闻和资讯的习惯。许多大型的报纸和新闻电视台都在网路上放出所谓的电子版本，而近期内美国著名的报纸Christian Science Monitor 也因为销售量减而放弃印刷版的日报，反而把精力着重于电子版的新闻和改称印刷周报。

与此同时，许多网路报章在近几年也如雨后春笋在网路上出现，例如政治立场靠左的Huffington Post，以及政治立场靠右的The Drudge Report 。除了网路报章之外，有许多非主流的新闻组织也透过类似YouTube的平台广播它们的新闻观点，例如Democracy Now!和The Real News Network。当然，这些网路媒体和传统媒体还是有些不同。传统媒体着重于事件的报导，而网路媒体着重于对时事的分析和评论。不仅如此，有些网路媒体也可以提供主流媒体没有讨论的观点。例如，当各主流媒体都争先恐后报导有关两大政党候选人的论点时，有些网路媒体却同时也报导类似绿党、自由党和社会党等候选人的论点，试图让大众有机会接触到没有在主流媒体中报导的政治观点。

为何电子媒体能够提供主流媒体无法提供的观点呢？第一，多数主流媒体都秉持公平报导的原则，很多时候都必须呈现多方立场的观点，因此其新闻报导和时事分析极端化的可能性比较小。反之，许多网路媒体的政治立场都不中立，因此对于时事分析很容易走向极端。第二，多数主流媒体都被吸引广告资金的需要绑住了手脚，因此都尽量在其报导和分析中避免争议。虽然有很多电子媒体也是依靠广告资金生存，不过也有些网路媒体不仰赖广告资金生存。Democracy Now!和The Real News Network就是两个很好的例子。它们完全仰赖听众和观众的捐款运作，而拒绝收取任何企业和官方的资金，因为声称这将使到其时事分析和报导的独立性。

从某种角度而言，Democracy Now!和The Real News Network的经营方式类似某种草根性的运动，而这或许也是它们为何可以提供有别主流媒体的新闻观点。其实，网路在某种程度上就是某种虚拟的草根运动，而网路媒体的新闻报导的来源多数来自拥有相同政治理念的观众所寄来的影像或者照片。因此，这不仅让其观众拥有参与感，有时候还让这些网路媒体拥有独家报导，使它们报导的方向有异于主流媒体。例如，共和党今年在密尼苏打州举办大会时，其实有许多示威者在街头抗议。这些示威行动在主流媒体仅是轻描淡写地带过，不过却因为许多示威民众或者目睹其示威的民众所提供的影像在网路媒体上得到很多报导，并且造成许多美国网民的回响。

最近，奥巴马效仿了前美国总统罗斯福在经济大萧条时的做法，为了安抚民心而发表公共演讲。有趣的是奥巴马选择的广播媒介是YouTube，可见他深深了解和重视其网路媒体的潜能。在越来越多发达国家的人民都仰赖网路的情况下，网路媒介做为传达政治讯息的力量实在是不能忽视。新加坡也算是网路资讯非常发达的国家，或许我们在下几届的大选内就可以见识其媒介影响左右大选成绩的状况了。

Jared Diamond: Why societies collapse

I would recommend reading his book 'Collapse!' as it provides a more comprehensive thesis on the points that Jared Diamond was making. However, this lecture will serve as a good primer for the book, I guess. 

Chicago Chinatown

As there is no good Chinese food in Iowa, I took a trip down to Chicago Chinatown whilst I was in the city last week to have a nice meal of char siew, roast pork and wanton noodles....

The Michael Jordan Statue

I missed the Jordan statue the first time I went to Chicago a few years back for a conference. As chance will have it this year, I went back to Chicago for another conference. No way I was going to miss taking photos of the Jordan Statue this time... 

Stephen Colbert -- Mad Men

This is a nice satire on the fundamentalist thinking that the free market can solve everything. 

兵不厌诈，这是选举！

(刊登于2008年11月2日)

记得今年六月美国民主党的总统初选刚结束而确认该党的总统获选人是奥巴马时，我当时和好友阿酷谈论此提名的历史重要性。由于属于共和党的布什总统支持率很低，再加上他许多政策都不受美国大众欢迎，因此我认为代表民主党的奥巴马当选的机会非常大。然而，我的朋友阿酷却不以为然，反而认为代表共和党的麦凯恩胜算更大。阿酷的见解源于他认为多数的美国白人不会想选出一个黑人总统。言下之意，阿酷认为种族歧视在某种程度上还存在于美国社会，只要麦凯恩懂得操纵所谓的种族情绪，获胜的可能性就会很大。

共和党候选人麦凯恩的选举智囊团队大概也有此想法，因此在此届的选举当中才会想尽办法利用负面竞选 (negative campaigning) 的伎俩拉打击奥巴马的竞选吧。其中最明显的伎俩就操纵种族情绪，利用旁敲侧击的手法，暗示奥巴马假如当选的话，将会对传统的美国白人族群非常不利。不仅如此，麦凯恩的选举团也利用奥巴马的中间名字是 “胡塞因” (Hussein) 的事实而暗示奥巴马和策划攻击美国的激进回教组织有关联。麦凯恩选举团队也借着奥巴马与前美国左翼极端恐怖份子比尔·阿雅斯 (Bill Ayers) 在九十年代曾经同时担任伊利诺大学芝加哥校区的教育改革小组的成员而引用了牵连犯罪的手法 (guilt by association) 指责奥巴马拥有极端的左翼思想。

当然，奥巴马的选举团队也使用类似的伎俩。除了指责投票给麦凯恩就等同投票给前八年不受欢迎的布什政府之外，奥巴马也暗示曾经得过皮肤癌的麦凯恩的身体状况不好，如果当选的话很有可能在任期内过世，而美国总统的位置到时就会落到一般大众都认为经验和能力不足的佩琳手中。

尽管双方的选举团都使用了负面竞选的手法，不过双方对于使用的原则和方法还是有些差别。麦凯恩的选举团队曾经表明负面竞选将会成为他们竞选活动的重要环节，而一般美国民众在民调中也表示他们认为麦凯恩比奥巴马使用了更多的负面竞选。相反地，奥巴马的选举团队却表示他们的竞选重心将放在把奥巴马假若当选所会实行的政策传达给一般美国大众，而只会在回应对手指责和在不做无依据指责的原则下使用负面竞选的手法。

对于以上负面竞选的手法， 麦凯恩本人应该不会感到陌生。在八年前的共和党总统候选人初选当中，麦凯恩就是因为类似伎俩而败在布什的手中。当时，布什的选举团就利用麦凯恩领养了一个孟加拉女孩的事实而指责他有个黑人的私生女，导致麦凯恩在美国较多白人的南部的州初选当中失去了原本领先的地位。或许有此经验，因此麦凯恩才会不假思索地使用负面的竞选手法。毕竟，根据以往总统大选的分析，这种兵不厌诈的竞选方式在某种方面确实是奏效的。

尽管双方阵营都采取兵不厌诈的姿态，不过讽刺的是民却厌诈，一般美国民众在民调中却表示对于负面的竞选手法感到反感。这与前几届的美国总统大选的趋势有些不同，也导致将竞选重心放在负面竞选手法的麦凯恩在民调中一直落后奥巴马。为何一般美国大众在此届的总统大选对于负面竞选手法不买账呢？有些人认为是由于网路的崛起，类似YouTube的平台让一般大众可以迅速查询候选人的负面指责到底有没有确凿的依据，因此不确实的负面指责所能产生的杀伤力大为减少。

当然，近期的金融风暴也是改变美国大众对于负面竞选手法的态度的主要原因。在一般民众对于不景气的未来感到不安时，大家所关切的是候选人提出的政策是否能够让他们度过经济难关，而不是听到候选人利用与政策无关的课题来数落对方。因此，尽管麦凯恩在竞选后期将其重心转回讨论政策和课题，不过许多政治评论者却认为此举动已经为时以晚了。

距离美国大选还有少过一个星期的时间。虽然奥巴马在本人写这篇文章时还居于上风，不过美国总统大选的结果鹿死谁手现在还不知道。如果奥巴马在此届大选中得到最后的胜利，或许在往后的美国总统大选中，其候选人在使用负面竞选前就必须三思而后行了。

A Singaporean's View On The US Election

I was approached by a student volunteer while I was taking photos of these posters plastered around campus to be registered to vote and also to vote early. I smiled and pointed out that I was not an American citizen, and that I could not vote. But the question got me thinking, if I were an American citizen, who would I support? It depends I guess. If I were in a "safe state", I will vote for Ralph Nader because I think he is the public figure in USA that I admire most. However, if I were in a swing state, I will vote Barack Obama, because I absolutely cannot stand the Republican platform (being the democratic socialist I am), and especially all that is embodied by their vice-presidential nominee, Sarah Palin. 

Of course, I am not a US citizen (and have never thought of becoming one), but a Singapore citizen. From the perspective of a Singaporean, who would I liked to see win? I have heard from a few of my friends who work in the public sectors (i.e., zheng hu kang) that Singapore has always been pro-Republican, mainly because the Republicans are pro-business (which is good for Singapore economically) and also pro-Asia, meaning they keep their military forces in Asian, which helps as a stabilizing force in the region. Just the other day, I have a friend who told me that her aunts (one of them holding a high level position in a corporate institution in Singapore) was saying that they hope Mccain will win, because that will mean "better business for Singapore". 

Furthermore, another more cynical reason why Singaporeans should be hoping for a Mccain win is because for the past few years, Singapore has become a player in the regional stage for genetic engineering. This is in part due to the restrictions on stem cell research championed by the Bush administration, something that will surely be overturned in an Obama administration. Well, as one of my friend commented, we are all selfish in some kind of way, and the fact that we benefit from another country's misfortune is not our fault at all. 

On the surface, it would seem that as a Singaporean, I should be in favor of a Mccain presidency. However, this is not the case. Other than the fact that I personally disagree with most of the Republican party's philosophy (and also that of Mccain's and Palin's), I also think that voting for Obama will be beneficial to Singapore. Let me explain why. I have expressed the opinion in the past that with the dwindling of petroleum resources, cities with high density population that consumes a high energy per capita (e.g. Singapore) will be in big trouble. Unless an alternative source of cheap and renewable energy is found, it will be impossible to sustain such a city like Singapore. Now, if this were in other countries, one will then predict a large population shift towards the rural areas. However, the problem with Singapore is that we as a small country do not have that kind of rural land to buffer our population. Hence, if there comes a day when there is energy shortage, it will be unimaginable. Just think of the water that most of us receives in our HDB flats. Without the electricity to power the pumps, there will essentially be no water for most of the people. 

And this lies the reason why I would be hoping that Obama wins the election. If you look at both the candidates' position on energy policies, Obama expresses funding research for alternative renewable energy, while Mccain's posititon is, well, drill baby drill (for more oil). I could be wrong, but with an Obama presidency, it would seem that research in alternative (and renewable) energy will be accelerated and conversely it will be impeded in a Mccain presidency. Hence, if there are any breakthrough in renewable energy research, it will be beneficial to Singapore in the long term. Hence, for a somewhat selfish reason as well, I am hoping for an Obama win, with the exception that the gains I see for Singapore are not 'short-term economic gains', but rather long-term solutions that might be crucial to the existence of our country. 

Lady Bug On My Finger

Taken at a nearby state park.... I wondered what the lady bug was thinking of at that moment in time...